PREDICTING THE OSCARS...THE WINNERS 2017: PART I

With the 89th Academy Awards looming this Sunday night and Jimmy Kimmel looking set to deliver a comedic show of epic proportions, will 'La La Land' add 14 more golden statuates to it's award-flooded bathtub? Will Emma Stone trump Natalie Portman to her first ever Best Actress win? And is there a possibility that the sweeping symphony of 'Moonlight' surprise the masses and scoop up the top prize? Here's my picks...

​Best Picture

La La Land
Moonlight
Arrival
Manchester By The Sea
Hacksaw Ridge
Fences
Lion
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures

Will Win: La La Land

​Despite my own personal dismay, I have no doubt that saxophone-heavy, sing-along, swaggering crowdpleaser that is 'La La Land' will scoop up arguably the biggest award of the night. I might personally believe the film is a self-congratulatory, material-minded chunk of hate-filled Hollywood propaganda. Yet that hasn't stopped the masses from covering it in kisses and cuddles as the knockout Box Office figures and giddy facebook statuses completely suggest. Not to mention rave 5-star reviews from even the snobbiest of critics and awards galore at pretty much every major ceremony in the run up to the grandest of them all on Sunday night. A rare awards contender that has captured the imaginations of the general public as much as it has the critics, it's almost certain that the Academy will deliver Damian Chazelle's unexpected blockbuster sensation the big prize of the night along with a handful of others - if only to give themselves a giant pat on the back!

Should Win: Moonlight

​Frankly - for my money - any of those contenders on the list deserve to stamp out 'La La Land''s saccharine bitter-sweetness come Sunday night - especially the likes of 'Arrival' and 'Manchester By The Sea'. However the only one that really stands the tiniest shred of a chance at doing so is - no doubt - Barry Jenkin's extraordinary, beautiful coming-of-age homosexual odyssey 'Moonlight'. Wouldn't it be a an absolute joy if both a black-led and gay film was to surprise all and take the prize home come Monday morning? Especially after last year's #OSCARSSoWhite Row. This year's OSCARS seem to have largely made up for their travesty of mistakes last year by nominating not one, but four non-white films - 'Moonlight', 'Fences', 'Hidden Figures' and 'Lion'. However 'Moonlight' slays them all being a gorgeous sensory voyage through adolescence for a young black man and a staggering achievement in ground-breaking film-making technique. It seems very unlikely, but if 'Moonlight' was to pull the awards-laden rug from 'La La Land''s feet at the very last minute - there's no question the universal consensus would that of outrage that yet another obscure independent film snatching away the statuette from populist entertainment. Thankfully for most, the OSCARS are way too in love with the sound of their own voice to let that up - not to mention a burning desire for escapism in a year where the likes of Trump, Brexit and a cascade of celebrity deaths made 2016 feel like a childhood worst nightmare! Nonetheless I have a distinct feeling that - in the years to come - 'Moonlight' will stand the test of time far better than it's jazz-fuelled rival which will likely give people a reason to think "what was all that fuss about?!".
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Best Actor

Casey Affleck for Manchester By The Sea
Denzel Washington for Fences
Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling for La La Land
Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic

Will and Should Win: Casey Affleck for Manchester By The Sea

2017 will undoubtedly be the year Casey Affleck takes home a very deserved first OSCAR after years of living in the shadow of his more famous yet frankly less talented brother Ben (who incidentally is up for a Golden Raspberry for worst actor in the clunking head-banger of 'Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice' (2016)!). His scenes with 20 year old Lucas Hedges's in Kenneth Lonergan's emotionally brutal 'Manchester By The Sea' are heart-wrenching and Affleck turns in a majestically understated performance that charts the transformation from gruff, disillusioned loner to lovingly protective father figure with tremendous unshowy conviction.

Best Actress

Emma Stone for La La Land
Natalie Portman for Jackie
Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins
Isabelle Huppert for Elle
Ruth Negga for Loving

Will Win: Emma Stone for La La Land
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I may have ranted far too much about my dislike for the popular favourite 'La La Land', but if there's any of it's 14-time nominated awards that Damian Chazelle's cloying musical swansong truly deserves to take home - and most likely will - it's Emma Stone's touching, delightful whirlwind of a central performance as lovesick, aspiring actress Mia. Stone has won the hearts of millions worldwide putting her trademark deliciously sassy yet lovingly heartfelt enthusiasm to frankly the best we've ever seen it. It's a performance that will leave even the most dry-eyed of audiences a complete blubbering mess as Stone steals every scene from gloomy Gosling - evoking sexual frustration, body dysmorphia and status dissatisfaction. Stone cries out to every young woman who's immense talent seems crushed by a disgustingly materialistic industry favouring plastic surgery and fake tans over natural beauty - thus leading to Depression and body image anxiety. In many ways, Stone makes up the heart and soul of a style over substance picture. No doubt the Academy will favour her due to their love of weepy performances involving underdogs achieving their wildest dreams - not to mention Stone is playing a Hollywood actress!

Should Win: Natalie Portman for Jackie

Arguably - in any other year - Natalie Portman's chameleon-like, scenary-chewing portrayal of Jackie Kennedy in Pablo Larrain's harrowingly emotive biopic would be a dead cert win. The OSCARS certainly have a fondness for actors embodying the roles of famous political figures if Daniel Day-Lewis's previous wins for 'Lincoln' (2012) or Meryl Streep winning for playing Margaret Thatcher in 'The Iron Lady' (2011) are any indication. Ever since earlier last year, early buzz surrounding Portman's central performance seemed to strongly suggest an easy, undisputed path to awards glory. However - in a year where the world appears to have lost faith in politics and an awards season intent on celebrating the history of Hollywood - Portman seemed to be massively overshadowed by that of the cheerier Emma Stone in the even cheerier 'La La Land'  at pretty much every awards show. Stone may be undeniably terrific, but isn't a smidgen of a patch on Portman's powerhouse psychological portrait of the emotionally damaged First Lady as a woman tittering on the edge of insanity due to a terrifying tragedy. Despite a somewhat lack of physical resemblance to the stateswoman, an awe-inspiring mix of sublime make-up work and small yet super-significant gestures see Portman blend into the role to the point where you fail to see the stunningly beautiful actress and only the historical figure she is masterfully playing - proving wrong once again any nit-pickers trying to suggest her painfully wooden acting in the 'Star Wars' prequels is the only representation of a far more talented acting career. I'd love to see Portman scoop up her second very deserved Best Actress award after her jaw-dropping turn in 'Black Swan' (2010). Not only does "unlikely" barely convey a shred of Portman's chances against Stone, but don't expect to see Portman skipping up the stage if she wins anyway - her new baby is due any day now!

​Best Director

Damian Chazelle for La La Land
Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
Denis Villeneuve for Arrival
Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester By The Sea
Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge

Will Win: Damian Chazelle for La La Land

Given - at least 95% of the time - the Best Director category more tends to reflect the OSCAR's fondness for the winning Best Picture nomination than it actually does for the best achievement in actual direction, it's pretty obvious that Damian Chazelle will scoop up his first OSCAR for Best Director at the tender age of 32 on only his second feature film. It's hard to argue 'La La Land' is a badly directed film. But best-directed film of the year? WHAT?!

Should Win: ​Barry Jenkins for Moonlight

This was a difficult choice for me given how much I adored 'Arrival' and Canadian film-maker Denis Villeneuve's wondrous work in creating a romping, spectacle-fuelled Sci-Fi blockbuster with complex themes, heart and intellectual ambition to bare. However ultimately - if it was my choice - the Directing prize would have to go to Barry Jenkins for his first major feature film which simultaneously managed to capture the sexual conquests, systematic homophobia and status disillusionment faced by a homosexual black adolescent through a series of irridescent images and swoon-worthy sound. The direction on 'Moonlight' really is quite unlike anything ever achieved before!